The 2026 Grammys: Who’s Got the Odds in Their Favour?

The Song of the Year race is shaping up to be one of the tightest contests of the 2026 Grammys. According to our estimates, ‘APT.’ by ROSÉ & Bruno Mars holds a narrow lead with odds of 3.83/1, the highest probability of winning among the 8 contenders. The collaboration has enjoyed sustained attention throughout the year, amassing more than 2.24 billion Spotify streams, reaching No. 1 on the Billboard Global 200, and winning numerous awards, including Song of the Year at the Asia Artist Awards, MAMA Awards, and MTV Video Music Awards. With its combination of cultural impact, chart dominance, and award-winning momentum, the Song of the Year category itself seems to favour this iconic duo, making it no surprise if a Grammy joins their growing trophy collection.

Sitting in second place is ‘Golden’ by HUNTR/X, the category’s dark horse, with odds of 5.43/1 (15.55%), signalling its rising threat to the favourite and reflecting the view of many that it could actually take home the Song of the Year award. The track is a standout from the Netflix animated film K-pop Demon Hunters, released in the summer of 2025. Performed by a fictional K-pop trio and featured on the movie’s soundtrack, the song quickly became a global pop culture phenomenon after its July release, topping charts worldwide and spending weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100.

Close behind is Lady Gaga’s ‘Abracadabra’ at 6.54/1 (13.27%), a song widely praised for fusing nostalgia with modern production. Often compared to her 2011 anthem ‘Born This Way’, the track reinvents Gaga’s signature theatrical style for a new era. With nominations across major categories and two MTV Video Music Awards wins, ‘Abracadabra’ remains a critical darling and a familiar Grammy-friendly contender.

The middle of the ranking features Bad Bunny’s ‘DtMF’ at 6.83/1 (12.77%) and Billie Eilish’s ‘WILDFLOWER’ at 7.43/1 (11.86%), both driven by strong artistic identities rather than viral gimmicks. Bad Bunny continues to dominate global music culture with genre-defying Spanish-language hits, while Eilish’s introspective songwriting once again positions her as one of the Academy’s most trusted voices.

Rounding out the category are Kendrick Lamar’s ‘Luther’, featuring SZA at 9.49/1 (9.53%), Sabrina Carpenter’s ‘Manchild’ at 10.32/1 (8.84%), and Doechii’s ‘Anxiety’ at 12.42/1 (7.45%). Kendrick’s track reinforces his reputation as one of hip-hop’s most respected lyricists in 2026, while Carpenter’s ‘Manchild’ became a TikTok staple, thanks to its country-tinged bubblegum pop sound and sharp, sarcastic take on modern dating. Doechii’s ‘Anxiety’ caps off the list as a bold, emotionally raw entry that reflects the Grammys’ growing embrace of newer, boundary-pushing artists.

Odds of winning the Record of the Year category largely mirror those in Song of the Year, with ROSÉ & Bruno Mars’ ‘APT.’ again leading at 3.39/1 (22.78%). At first glance, it might seem unlikely for the same song to take home two of the ‘big four’ Grammy awards, but history shows it is far from unprecedented. Kendrick Lamar’s ‘Not Like Us’ last year and Adele’s ‘Rolling in the Deep’ in 2012 are just two examples of tracks that have won both categories in the same year.

Lady Gaga, Bad Bunny, Billie Eilish, Kendrick Lamar, Sabrina Carpenter, and Doechii all return from the previous category, meaning their pop-culture context and momentum largely carry over.

The main difference is the addition of Chappell Roan’s ‘The Subway’ 14.25/1 (6.56%), a fresh entry that implements an indie-pop sensibility into the field. While holding the lowest probability in the category, the track has already made a mark on streaming charts and social feeds, hinting at its growing influence.

Outside the obvious leaders for this category, such as Bad Bunny (DtMF at 1.95/1), Kendrick Lamar (GNX at 5.39/1), Sabrina Carpenter (Man’s Best Friend at 6.93/1), and Lady Gaga (MAYHEM at 8.12/1), the field includes some compelling, unexpected nominees. Justin Bieber’s SWAG (8.44/1, 10.60%) marks a high-profile comeback, reestablishing his mainstream dominance, while Clipse’s Let God Sort Em Out (14.95/1, 6.27%) celebrates the legendary duo’s first album in 16 years. Tyler, The Creator’s CHROMAKOPIA (14.95/1, 6.27%) pushes artistic boundaries with his trademark experimental flair, and Leon Thomas’ MUTT (23.49/1, 4.08%) brings an indie-leaning edge that reflects the Grammys’ expanding appetite for diverse sounds and styles.

The Best New Artist category brings together a wide spectrum of 2025’s most talked-about breakthrough performers. According to our estimations, Olivia Dean is most likely to grab the trophy with odds of 6.22/1 (13.84%), having topped the Billboard Pop Airplay chart with five different edits and remixes of ‘Man I Need’, an unusually aggressive release strategy that paid off in a major way. Alex Warren is hot on Dean’s hills at 6.43/1 (13.45%), having dominated global charts and fans’ playlists with ‘Ordinary’, the most-streamed song on Spotify in 2025, making his crossover into mainstream success feel all but inevitable.

The American indie pop band The Marías (6.63/1, 13.10%) finally cracked the Hot 100 after years of cult acclaim, and Addison Rae at 6.87/1 (12.70%) successfully converted social media fame into a full-scale debut album era and world tour. Other nominees like Lola Young, KATSEYE, sombr, and Leon Thomas each brought their own momentum, from chart-topping singles to festival buzz and major streaming growth, making this one of the most unpredictable races of the evening.

In Best Music Video, the 68th Grammys offer a tightly contested visual showdown. Sabrina Carpenter’s ‘Manchild’ sits out front with a 45.93% chance, powered by the video’s mix of country-tinged bubblegum pop and feel-good disco energy. The witty commentary on immature exes has made it a viral sensation, particularly on TikTok. It’s the same brand of hyper-relatable storytelling that has fueled the rise of female pop stars like Taylor Swift, resonating most strongly with women while still crossing over to mainstream audiences.

Doechii’s ‘Anxiety’ is the second-strongest contender with odds of 1.52/1 (39.61%), a visually striking and emotionally raw piece that has earned critical praise for its creative narrative and edgy aesthetic. While Sade’s ‘Young Lion’ (8.02/1, 11.08%) represents timeless elegance and artistry and has some chance of receiving the trophy, the remaining nominees, Clipse’s ‘So Be It’ and OK Go’s ‘Love’, are unlikely to disrupt the frontrunners, despite their artistic strengths.

This is the second time we see Sabrina Carpenter at the forefront with ‘Manchild’, this time praising the vocal performance, rather than the video, with odds of winning standing at 2.57/1. Close behind is Lady Gaga’s ‘Disease’ (3.01/1), a bold stylistic evolution that continues to earn critical attention and demonstrate her staying musical relevance. Lola Young’s ‘Messy’ (3.80/20.83%) became one of the year’s most discussed breakouts with raw emotional storytelling that resonated with critics and fans alike, giving her a high probability of winning, further enhanced by the unique power and texture of her voice. Justin Bieber’s ‘DAISIES’ (6.63/1) stands as a key highlight of his 2025 comeback, bridging viral buzz and radio rotation, and Chappell Roan’s ‘The Subway’ (6.64/1) represents a rising indie‑pop voice who turned niche buzz into broader streaming growth.

A familiar battle plays out in the next category, with ROSÉ & Bruno Mars’ “APT.” leading at 1.82/1 (35.43%), followed by HUNTR/X’s ‘Golden’ (2.45/28.98%). Other notable entries include SZA and Kendrick Lamar with ‘30 For 30’ (7.26/1), a sultry, lyrically complex track showcasing both artists’ mastery of contemporary R&B and hip-hop, KATSEYE and their hit ‘Gabriela’ (7.26/1), continuing their hyperpop surge, and Cynthia Erivo & Ariana Grande’s ‘Defying Gravity’ (7.80/11.37%), the show-stopping finale from Jon M. Chu’s Wicked spin-off, highlighting the duo’s vocal virtuosity and memorable cinematic performance.

The Best R&B Song category is led by Summer Walker’s ‘Heart Of A Woman’ at 1.78/1 (35.91%), highlighting her status as one of R&B’s most emotionally resonant voices. The track, from her acclaimed album Finally Over It, blends heartfelt honesty with smooth neo-soul production and has earned nominations for both Best R&B Song and Best R&B Performance, reflecting her strong influence on the genre this year.

Kehlani’s ‘Folded’ ranks second at 3.12/1 (24.29%), which became her first Top 10 hit on the Billboard Hot 100 and one of 2025’s most commercially successful R&B singles, adding to a career already decorated with Grammy nods and more than 20 gold and platinum RIAA certifications. Coming next, Leon Thomas’ ‘YES IT IS’ (3.53/1, 22.07%) caps off his breakout year. After winning a Grammy for songwriting on SZA’s ‘Snooze’ in 2024, Thomas has emerged as a rising solo star with notable chart momentum and industry recognition.

Also in the mix is Chris Brown featuring Bryson Tiller and their ‘It Depends’ (4.68/1, 17.59%), a collaboration that blends Brown’s mainstream energy with Tiller’s trap‑soul sensibilities, and Durand Bernarr with ‘Overqualified’, an expressive indie R&B track from a rising artist who built his career from viral YouTube beginnings to collaborations with top-tier talent.

The Best Rap Song category is razor-tight, with Kendrick Lamar’s ‘tv off’ (2.13/1, 31.92%) leading thanks to sharp lyrics and bold production, and Doechii’s ‘Anxiety’ (2.31/1, 30.26%) making a breakout impact with its unflinching lyrics and bold energy.

Rounding out the field are Tyler, The Creator’s ‘Sticky’ (4.54/1, 18.05%), a high-profile genre-blending collab with GloRilla, Sexyy Red, and Lil Wayne, GloRilla’s ‘TGIF’ (5.34/1, 15.77%) bringing signature Southern heat, and Clipse’s ‘The Birds Don’t Sing’ (23.95/1,4.01%), a soulful, lyric-driven nod to hip-hop legacy featuring John Legend and Voices of Fire.